Happy Friday!
As many of you know, each Wednesday I research the questions consumers are
asking Google and AI tools like ChatGPT about mortgages, homebuying, interest
rates and financing options.
My goal is to identify the concerns and misconceptions that are driving
consumer decisions—and share those insights with you each Friday, along with
the latest real estate and mortgage market news.
This week, the questions are particularly interesting!
With the election behind us, buyers and homeowners are understandably
wondering:
- Will the election affect mortgage
rates?
- Are home prices finally coming down?
- Should I buy now or wait until 2027?
- Will the Federal Reserve cut rates
again in December?
- Is there an advantage to buying
during the holiday season?
These are exactly the questions we're exploring in this week's update. While
we can't measure every question being asked privately of ChatGPT, current
public search discussions and housing-market reports give us a good picture of
the concerns on consumers' minds.
And there is some encouraging news!
According to Freddie Mac, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate
declined to 7.11% yesterday, marking the fourth consecutive weekly
decline.
Meanwhile, the housing market is experiencing a pronounced slowdown as we
approach the holidays.
So, what does all of this mean for buyers, sellers and Realtors between now
and December 31?
Let's take a look!
The Housing Market Has Definitely Slowed
The October housing reports are getting everyone's attention.
According to Zillow, newly pending home listings fell nearly **17% compared
with October 2025**, the largest annual decline in more than three years.
Realtor.com also reported that new listings fell 7.5% year over year, while
pending listings declined 10.5%.
And Redfin reports that October's national median home-sale price declined 0.4%
from a year earlier, the first annual decline in more than three years.
HOWEVER…Orange County remains a collection of very different markets, and
desirable, well-priced homes can still attract strong interest.
But nationally, the message is clear:
**Buyers are cautious, sellers are hesitant, and affordability remains the
biggest obstacle.**
What Did the Election Change?
The November election has created a new political landscape, with Democrats
winning control of Congress while the White House remains Republican.
That means divided government, and potentially more difficulty passing major
legislation. Some investors view political gridlock as limiting the
likelihood of major new spending initiatives. Others are concerned about budget
negotiations, government funding disputes and the possibility of additional
economic uncertainty.
Mortgage rates are influenced by the bond market, inflation expectations,
economic growth, Treasury yields and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy.
The election may influence those expectations, but it doesn't directly
determine mortgage rates. **And remember, the Federal Reserve doesn't set
mortgage rates!**
Karen's Desk: What I'm Watching Between Now and December 31
There are several things I think will influence our market over the next six
weeks.
**1. Inflation and employment reports** These will continue to be
important drivers of Treasury yields and mortgage-backed securities.
Stronger inflation, or unexpectedly resilient economic growth, could push rates
higher.
**2. The Federal Reserve's December meeting** The market will be watching
the Fed's policy decision and, perhaps more importantly, its commentary about
inflation and the economy heading into 2027.
A Fed rate cut does not automatically produce lower mortgage rates. Sometimes
the bond market has already anticipated the move.
**3. The traditional holiday slowdown**
November and December are typically quieter months for real estate. But
people still move because of job changes, family needs, divorce, retirement and
other life events.
**4. Seller motivation**
This may be one of the more interesting opportunities. A seller who has
had a property on the market for several months may be more receptive to
negotiating price, repairs or allowable closing-cost credits than a seller
entering the spring market.
And for buyers struggling with monthly payments, the right financing concession
can sometimes be more valuable than a modest price reduction.
A Little Encouraging News!
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported this week that purchase mortgage
applications increased **8% from the prior week**, even though they remained
18% below the same week last year.
That's an interesting combination. Overall housing activity remains weak, but
the recent improvement in mortgage rates may be encouraging some buyers to
reenter the market.
It's too early to call that a turnaround, but it's certainly worth watching.
Ask Karen
**“Should I wait until January or February to purchase?”**
Maybe. But not necessarily! I would look at three things:
**The property:** Is it priced appropriately? How long has it been on
the market? Is the seller motivated?
**The financing:** Can we structure a payment that works comfortably for
the buyer today, possibly with a negotiated seller credit or another
appropriate financing option?
**The buyer's plans:** Are they financially ready? Is this the right
home? Does waiting actually improve their situation?
I would never recommend purchasing based on the assumption that rates will fall
or refinancing will become available later. But I also wouldn't
automatically dismiss an opportunity simply because it's November.
One Final Thought
I don't expect the housing market to suddenly come roaring back before New
Year's Eve.
But I do think there may be opportunities for buyers and sellers who are
willing to approach the market thoughtfully.
The next six weeks will likely bring a combination of holiday-season quiet,
continued economic uncertainty and some potentially interesting financing
opportunities.
**My advice? Don't try to time the market. Understand the market,
evaluate the numbers, and make the decision that works for your particular
circumstances.**
As always, I'm here to help you and your clients explore the options.
Have a wonderful weekend!
Sr. Loan Officer | NMLS #235218
The Card Team | American Pacific Mortgage Corporation
714-290-6940
www.card-team.com