Rates, Foreclosures and BeachFire

Interest Rate Update

The end of the government’s purchase program –on March 31st—of mortgage-backed securities, was widely heralded as the precursor of a steep rise in mortgage interest rates. However, after an initial steep decline in MBS prices (pushing rates up) rates have improved and stabilized for the time being. Scott Simon, managing director of PIMCO says “We are unlikely to see a significant market disruption in the agency market stemming from the Fed’s retreat.” Translation: he doesn’t think rates are going to rise. Much.

30 year fixed rates are currently ranging from the high 4’s to the low 5’s depending on loan size, fico score, property type, loan purpose and loan-to-value. FHA rates are in the same range and go up to 96.5% loan-to-value (3.5% down.)

There is a new purchase program called HomePath requiring only 5% down on properties currently owned by Fannie Mae. The rates are a bit higher, but there is no requirement for mortgage insurance which is a big plus.

The BIG news is that true “jumbo” financing is returning to the market place. We are suddenly seeing very competitive rates from Chase, US Bank, Wells Fargo and GMAC. Great news for those with loan balances over the current high-balance Agency limit of $729,000. However, be warned, these programs are very conservative in terms of credit, personal liquidity, and loan-to value.

Foreclosure Activity Report

8.33% of all mortgages in Orange County are more than 90 days late. The national average is 8.78% and the California average is at 11.68%. Government programs to prevent foreclosures are slowing foreclosure rates…but most of these homes will likely convert to “short sales.”

My clientele’s purchases this year have primarily been short sales requiring bank approval…which is hard to come by, and can takes months to achieve. Then, when they finally agree to a price, they typically want to close the purchase within 15 to 21 days making for a mad dash at the end! Banks are not easy to deal with!

The highest percentage of distressed sales in the U.S. is in the Riverside SMSA, then Las Vegas and Sacramento.

Happy Hour at BeachFire

Friday evening I went to the BeachFire Bar & Grill in San Clemente. BeachFire opened in 2002 and is credited with the revitalization of downtown San Clemente.

They host a regular Friday evening Happy Hour all night, if you show up in “island” attire…whatever that means. I wore my yellow shell necklace from Maui and it did the trick. I had an aloha shirt in my purse as a back-up though. Drinks are $4 to $5 each, and appetizers range from $4 to $6. What a deal! Any time it rains, they also offer Happy Hour prices….otherwise known as “When it rains we pour.”

In addition to great drinks and appetizers at discounted prices, they have live Reggae music every Friday. We were rockin’… or whining, rather! (Jamaican-style dancing) The band manager treated my friends and I to Jaeger shots which was a hoot. See, you can still have fun over 50. http://beachfire.com/home.asp

My favorite Reggae band had performed the prior week…Smoothie Jones and the RedX. Now they play authentic Jamaican Reggae! I was sorry we missed them. http://www.myspace.com/smoothiejones
They used to play regularly in Dana Point, on the summer cocktail harbor cruises.

Rate Update and Remedies for Post-Holiday Blues

Rates improved nicely by the end of last week. A new 30 year fixed rate loan, up to $729,000, is going to be somewhere south of 5%, down to 4.75% if your loan amount is below $417,000.

Five year fixed rates are still at or below 4% for loans up to $729,000. The CPI figures that came out at the end of the week were lower than expected, helping keep interest rates down, and the government spending spree for mortgage backed securities is also providing assistance.

However, keep in mind these rates won’t last since we have repeatedly been reminded that the mortgage-back securities buying program will end by the end of the first quarter this year. In addition, as soon as inflation raises its ugly head it will bode ill for interest rates.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

My prescription for the end-of-the-holidays blues is great food, wine and music.

On a recent Sunday afternoon we drove to downtown San Clemente and strolled the length of Del Mar for some window shopping. Yes, we bought some touristy gift-cards too! We headed for the San Clemente Wine Company to check it out after reading a few reviews in the local newspaper. This wine shop offers a comfortable tasting area in the back of the store, where for $15 you can taste a flight of 6 wines. We had cheese, crackers and some great reds…Pinot Noirs, Cabs, and Syrahs.

The SC Wine company specializes in moderately-priced wines from California, Australia and New Zealand. The owners are currently visiting in New Zealand to locate new wines for the shop. They regularly host vintners for special tasting events, and are open 7 days a week.

Next on my “fight the blues” list is Iva Lee’s restaurant, on Camino Capistrano in San Clemente. Offering outrageously good food and music, the theme is southern-style N’awlins all the way. Gumbo, catfish, fried green tomatoes, sweet potato fries and the like are all on the menu. Blues is the obvious music of choice, and we were lucky to catch the Blue Machine Band. They play regularly on Thursdays at Iva Lee’s but also appear in other Orange county venues.

If you love Blues and Cajun cooking, you can’t miss Iva Lee’s.
The restaurant was busy for a Thursday night, so call for a reservation. After it cleared out a bit, we took advantage and danced in the dining room near our table, and in the bar. Weekend crowds might make that a bit difficult however.

Last, but not least, we dined with friends at Bistango, an old favorite in Irvine near the airport. We were celebrating three birthdays, and as always the food was outstanding and the dancing was a blast. Bistango has live music every night, with a real live dance floor. We appreciated not only the cuisine, but the art as well, which is inspiring (at least inspiring for artists like the one I live with.) Definitely my special occasion choice!

I think I have beaten the blues. Now if only the hurricane will stop so I can go outside again!