Interest Rates Trending Lower!

With the Christmas season upon us, we want to wish you all a safe and joyous holiday! 

MARKET AND RATE OUTLOOK

While this year has been stressful in many ways, interest rates have improved over the past two months and home prices have continued to drop.  These combine to make it much more attractive for homebuyers to move forward!  Although we still have a shortage of inventory, we are definitely seeing sellers who are willing to work with buyers on credits to closing costs and rate buydowns. 

Most economists see us entering recession sometime next year.  There is no agreement on the timing of recession, however.  Whether sooner or later in the year and short or lasting for a longer time period, it will bring interest rates down.

2022 INCOME TAXES

We always urge clients to allow us to review draft taxes PRIOR to filing.  This is particularly poignant for self-employed individuals or those who own rental properties.

If you are planning a refinance or a home purchase in the next year or two, it is essential to strategize with your tax and finance professionals to ensure a successful transaction.  Oftentimes we work with clients for over a year to be well-positioned for a new mortgage transaction.

1031 EXCHANGE

We have handled these in the past and are currently working with three 1031 exchange situations.  If you have a rental property to sell, we can assist with financing the purchase.

ADVENTURES

Steve and I recently completed two legs of an epic sailing journey with friends.  Our friends are relocating their sailboat from Dana Point to Ft. Lauderdale.  This involves quite a long trip through the Panama Canal.  The first leg we sailed was down the coast to Cabo San Lucas.  This leg took ten days with stops in three bays.  The second leg was from Loreto across the Sea of Cortez to Mazatlán and was fairly quick.  We will be joining the boat again next April for the trip through the Canal and onto the Cayman Islands.  Some scuba diving may be involved!

Thank you again to all our wonderful clients and partners!  We appreciate you more than you know!  We wish you all a fabulous holiday and a prosperous 2023!

The Holidays are Upon Us!

 As we look forward to celebrating Thanksgiving this year with family, we want to wish you all a wonderful holiday next week.  We have so much to be thankful for, including our clients and their referrals.  You are appreciated!

This year we were able to generate a $10,000 donation to “You Run This Town”, a non-profit focused on at-risk youth.  They held their first annual golf tournament, and we were able to participate.  Steve and I golfed with another couple, and Katie acted as the event coordinator and MC for the day.

BUYING SEASON?

In the past the typical home buying season was springtime through summer.  Now, there is no actual buying season, as volume does not tend to slow down as much during the holidays.  We are working with active buyers as I write this, who are benefitting from the recent home price reductions.  The days of multiple offers on a property are gone, so buyers have much more power than earlier in the year. 

RATES AND PROGRAMS

While rates have continued to rise, they seem to have leveled off somewhat in the last couple of weeks.  We are hopeful that the Fed will slow down rate bumps in an effort to tame inflation. And the concept of refinancing as soon as rates drop in the future is becoming a common theme with many of my clients who are buying or refinancing right now.

Permanent rate buydowns and 2-1 rate buydowns are becoming commonplace.  A permanent buydown can be paid for by either the seller or the buyer, and with say two points (2% of loan amount) this will reduce the interest rate permanently by around 1.75%.

A 2-1 buydown works like this:  In the first year, the rate is reduced by 2%;  in the 2^nd year, by 1%;  and in the 3^rd year goes up to the original market rate.   The buyer still must qualify at the higher original rate, but they receive the benefit of lower payments for the first two years.  This type of buydown must be paid by the seller and cannot be paid by buyer.  The hope is that when rates drop (AND THEY WILL!) the loan can be refinanced. Any funds leftover for the buydown at the time of refinance will be credited to the loan balance, reducing the payoff.  The cost for the 2-1 buydown is essentially the same as it is for the permanent buydown. But only the seller can pay for it.

Debt Service Coverage programs are also popular for use with rental properties.  These loans are not underwritten with an eye to the borrower’s income but focus on the income from the rental property in order to qualify for a loan.  Much simpler and easier.  Rates are higher for rental property, however.

SAILING TO CABO SAN LUCAS

Steve and I recently returned from a sailing trip down the coast from Dana Point to San Jose del Cabo.  We accompanied friends on their sailboat, which will eventually end up in Ft. Lauderdale.  It was quite an adventure, filled with catching tuna, flying spinnakers, anchoring in bays on the way south, and some card games at night while at anchor.  Night watches did get exciting a couple of times!  We will rejoin our friends soon in Loreto to sail to Mazatlán before flying home.   A little scuba diving may be involved…

Please reach out to us with any questions, and travel safely over the holiday!

“To reverse or not to reverse, that is the question.”

 5 common misconceptions about reverse loans that I STILL hear, almost every week:

1.  The bank owns the home.  YOU OWN THE HOME
2.  When I die the bank takes over the home.  YOUR HEIRS INHERIT THE PROPERTY
3.   Reverse loans are only for people in dire straits.  FINANCIAL PLANNERS USE THEM AS A TOOL TO OFFSET DRAINING TAXABLE RETIREMENT ASSETS
4.  The bank will foreclose when one spouse dies.  THE LOAN REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL BOTH SPOUSES HAVE PERMANENTLY MOVED OUT.
5.   I will be taxed on the funds I pull out.  FUNDS RECEIVED ARE TAX FREE.

 Let me know if you want to start talking about whether a reverse mortgage might be right for you.

MARKET UPDATE

It has certainly been a strange couple of months.  Rates came down a bit, then bounced higher.  The market continues to be extremely volatile.

Right now rates are running between 5.5% to 7% depending on program chosen and other factors such as FICO score, Loan to Value, etc.  While property appreciation is decelerating, we are not seeing a drop in values, at least here in California.  Builders have slowed on new construction which limits supply, and there is still a shortage of available inventory.  Although affordability has removed some players from the field, for those who can qualify there is quite a bit of room for negotiation.  A seller credit to buy down the interest rate is becoming quite common. 

The new lender mantra is “Marry the house, but date the rate and  the payment.”  When rates come down, and they will, there will be time to refinance for those who buy now.  And, buyers still have the upper hand towards building net worth by owning vs. renting. 

The number of offers per property listed has decreased dramatically, so the buyer is definitely moving into the driver’s seat.   And time on the market is increasing, while 40% of listings have reduced their price.

SCUBA DIVING

We just returned from a quick trip to Cabo Pulmo on the Southern East Cape of Baja.  This is a protected marine park with a coral reef and lots of fish.  Jacques Cousteau called it the Aquarium of the World with good reason.  The sheer volume of fish is astounding.  In addition to many varieties of tropical fish, we saw a large school of jacks, a white tip shark, some turtles and rays.

We traveled with a group of divers from the Dana Point Yacht Club.

FOOTBALL

As a lifelong USC fan and alum, I am happy to see our team finally consistently winning this year. I was able to attend the game vs. Washington on Saturday and had a blast with my grandkids. 

GO TROJANS!

As always please reach out to us with any questions and/or concerns you may have.

THAT WAS FAST! Summer is officially over

No more white shoes, white pants or dresses, right?  Although we think that idea is a bit out of date today, at the Yacht Club white pants are not de rigueur after Labor Day.  Acting as the “Officers of the Deck” this week, we were asked to dress in formal yacht club attire which includes white or blue shirts, grey or khaki pants and navy jackets emblazoned with the Club Bullion.

Now, down to business:

Housing Market Correction

The experts are all weighing in on the likelihood of a “correction” to the housing market. Will prices come down?  There is a good deal of downward pressure on prices.  We may see a swing closer to a buyers’ market in the near future.  But remember, inventory is still extremely low.  No “crash” is in sight.  All the factors make it highly unlikely.

Rates

Up, down and sideways. Last week they hit an average of 6% which is the highest since 2008. However, a graph of average interest rates over the last 50 years in the US shows we are still quite near the low end.  It has been the sudden doubling of rates over the last 18 months that has buyers pushing the pause button.  Affordability has decreased with the rate rise.  Loan applications are down significantly which also means there is less competition out there for willing buyers.

Refinance activity particularly has slowed significantly, and is providing only 30% of current total loan volume.

Conforming Loan Limit Increases

The conforming loan limit, which includes both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans, will rise effective January 1st but many lenders, including APM are already accepting rate locks for conforming loans up to a $715,000 loan amount. The actual new limit could be higher, but most agree that $715K is a safe bet.  What does this mean for borrowers?  Conforming loans are easier to qualify for!  Good news all the way around

Down Payment Assistance

No cash for a down payment?  No problem.  We have programs to assist new homebuyers with as little as $500 cash. With a combination of down payment assistance through various programs, coupled with seller credits to offset closing costs, there is almost no cash required to get into a home.  Of course there are income qualification requirements. 

Don't hesitate to reach out to us with questions!  Enjoy the transition to fall, we can't wait to cool off a bit.

HOT AUGUST NIGHTS but COOLING REAL ESTATE MARKET!

 

REAL ESTATE MARKET

The housing market continues to slow as more homes come on market and prices fall, while rates level off and drop somewhat, averaging around the 5% mark give or take.  The average home price across the state and in Los Angeles County is $863K...and a whopping $1.25 million in Orange County—which marks a 15% increase over the last twelve months. 

OPPORTUNITY

Pending sales are down 40% from a year ago, and mortgage applications across the country are at a low of well over 20 years.  Some buyers are purportedly walking away.   This does create a great opportunity for buyers who were stymied over the last year making multiple offers without success.  So long as they can qualify with higher rates, there is much more opportunity to negotiate and even offer less than list price, which was unthinkable a year ago.  Or, negotiate a big seller credit to closing costs or buy down the interest rate!

WEDDED BLISS

We expect to see a total of 2.5 million weddings across the country in 2022, which is a national record.  COVID caused many weddings to be postponed and they are all catching up now.  This should provide more demand for housing as the newly married couples set up house.  New home construction has slowed quite a bit, and new home sales are way off.  Builders are cutting prices, and offering big incentives to buy down interest rates to help their buyers qualify. 

We love working with first-timers to help them plan their entry into he housing market and will show them how much they can increase their net worth with home ownership vs. renting.

REVERSE FINANCING

Reverse Loans continue to pick up steam as baby boomers realize how much equity they have in their homes, and are reluctant to move, knowing prices are higher across the country.  These programs now go down to age 55 in some cases, and loan amounts go higher up to multi-millions, depending on property value and program selected. 

SUMMER FUN

We have been enjoying the summer days and warm evenings, and hope your summer is going smoothly.  The tales of airline delays and cancellations have taken a bit of the blush off summer air travel.  We plan to take a drive up the state to visit relatives, camp out a couple days in the Sierra foothills, and tour the central coast.  (maybe a little wine tasting included!) Luckily gas prices seem to be coming down a bit.

Be safe and have fun!

WEIRD TIMES! What's Next? And Divorce Planning

 Inflation and Recession

All the news today is about inflation, rising rates, and the prospect of a recession.  What does all this mean for homeownership?  We want to stress that home ownership is historically the best hedge against inflation.  Although interest rates have returned to “normal” territory, reducing affordability for many in comparison to the last two years, there is still a good argument for buying now vs. waiting.

We are NOT going to see a big drop in property values and a wave of foreclosures, recession or no recession. All homeowners since the 2008 meltdown have qualified ON PAPER for their loans, and have also seen dramatic increases in their home value, which means they have plenty of equity.  Plus, there are many many safeguards in place since the meltdown to prevent fraud and guarantee that borrowers are well-qualified for their mortgages.

Although renting today for the next five years may cost a bit less than buying a home, a homeowner will have greater net worth vis-à-vis their equity and principal paydown during that time period.  And, the longer you hold real estate the greater the net worth of the owner.  This is the best way to create wealth.  On average homeowners have 40 times the net worth of renters.  In addition, there are some tax benefits to owning property.  The the interest paid for the loan and the real estate taxes are deductible up to a specific limit.  This deduction saves on income taxes.

In a recession, unemployment usually rises.  However, unemployment is currently so low, even if it increases it is hard to see that it will have much impact.  The technical definition of a recession is when our nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declines for two consecutive quarters. So far, so good.

There is currently no bubble in real estate values as demand remains strong. The primary driver of an impending recession today is the current rate of inflation. Rising interest rates can cause a decline in economic activity.  We will see how high the Fed will go!  If we enter recession, rates will eventually come down to stimulate the economy.

In the meantime, mortgage rates have fallen in the last two weeks.  This is thought to be a reaction to the fact that the market had already “built in” the expectation of rising rates and inflation, and they are balancing out.

At its worst, a recession typically lasts for 18 months. Not longer. Most pundits are predicting a very mild recession if it does become reality.   Bottom line:  don’t wait on the sidelines!

DIVORCE

We all know someone who is either contemplating a separation or going through divorce.  These individuals require special planning to prepare for a refinance to “cash-out” the departing spouse, or to prepare for the purchase of a new home.  There is a great deal of strategizing involved to achieve a successful result. 

In the instance where a spouse has not been working, and will be relying on spousal support, six months of documented receipt of said support will be required. Start the support payments early! Obtaining new employment to qualify is a possibility, depending on prior education and work experience.

We have quite a bit of experience handling these circumstances both before, during, and after a final judgment is received. These can be tricky situations! 

Reach out to my team for professional guidance.

 

DID YOU KNOW?

We have a CARD TEAM YouTube channel with all kinds of great information on a wide variety of topics including how to prepare for a home purchase;  How to repair credit;  how to plan for a refinance or home purchase during divorce; why Reverse loans are picking up in popularity; how to hold title to real estate, and More!  Here is the link to check out our channel:  The Card Team YouTube Channel

Happy Summer!  Please call us with any questions you may have.

Karen

The Season of Weddings, Vacations and Home Sales!

 Sales Activity and Interest Rates

Home sales activity has slowed down with the sudden uptick in rates combined with general market volatility.  In the past, the summer months represented the lion’s share of home sales.  However, this has changed in the past five years or so.  Today there is no real “sales season” as home sales remain fairly consistent year-round—at least here in California.

The recent rise in mortgage rates has stalled out, with rates ranging from the mid 4’s well into the 5’s.  The rate chosen by a borrower depends on many factors to include FICO score, loan term, (a 5- or 10-yr ARM vs. a 30 year fixed) loan program, (FHA, VA, Conforming or Jumbo)  loan purpose (purchase vs. refinance) and primary residence vs. second home or investment property. 

Some market analysts believe that rates may come down a bit.  Did you know the historical “normal rate” is 6.25%?

On home prices, we still have no reason to believe that values will fall.  There is simply too much demand and not enough inventory.  Flatten out a bit, possibly.

Family Fun

I was able to spend the Memorial weekend with my grandchildren, while my partner (and daughter) Katie and her husband were in Napa and Sonoma with friends.  The kids had a great time at the Long Beach Aquarium and were able to find and identify the Hawaii state fish, the Humuhumunukunukuapa’a.  And yes, they know how to pronounce it! 

After lunch at Bubba Gumps’ we ventured to the Los Alamitos Yacht Club to watch my grandson Theo in a sailboat race.  After two days of racing, he came in 2^nd overall!  A great achievement!

While Theo was racing, Steve was also in a race Saturday overnight from Cabrillo Yacht Club in San Pedro around Catalina Island and back to Dana Point.  His boat, Chaos Theory won first place in its class!

We are off for some scuba diving in Mexico.  I was certified only sixteen years ago but Steve was certified in 1970.  Wow!  No dive computers back then, you dove by the Navy Dive tables and had to hand calculate your dive times/depth using the charts. Actually although computers were coming into regular use when I was certified, we still learned with the tables.  Now we use dive computers that do all the calculations for us.  😊

Happy Summer!  Please call us with any questions you may have.

Karen